Depressionomics' Predictions for 2009

1. "Economic Depression" will be declared before December 31, 2009. TPTB are always slow to declare this. They just officially declared the "U.S. in Recession" like about a month ago. What a surprise! David Rosenberg Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch, this week, declared we are already in an Economic Depression! Many other Bearish notables have declared it as well, but this Mr. Rosenberg is no lightweight.

2. Downsized living, debt freedom and creative frugality hints will be the new "Flip this House".

3. The Obama Team will explore the ending of the Marijuana prohibition as a viable source of new tax revenue.

4. Obama commerative coins and plates are found in the "Dollar Store" Salvation Army, and Goodwill by the end of March.


5. Backyard gardening and Soil restoration will replace Carnival Cruises, Disney and Tahoe vacations.

6.  Affluenza sufferers will be the subject of a new reality series called "I See Debt People ".   It will be produced by the folks who brought us VH1's "Celebrity Fit Club". 

7. The Shopacopalypse continues to devastate the discretionary consumer sector of the US economy. Garage sales, flea and farmer's markets will be found in every suburban neighborhood and will morph into a powerful shadow economy

8. California will continue to be ground zero for economic implosion. Instead of Dust Bowl refugees coming into the state in GD 1.0, this time former McMansion dwellers in Ford Explorer hybrids will flee to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado,Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Oregonians will take to the streets, though,  in protest and will pass around petitions to keep them out of that state.  The illegal immigrants will take up residence the abandoned and foreclosed homes.


9. Starbucks files for Chapter 11.

10. The nine bailout banks will become nationalized and the losses will not be contained due to exponentially exploding credit card, mortgage and auto loan defaults. The worst is yet to come.

11. Martha Stewart will have an afternoon show that will focus on 19th and early 20th century domestic arts such as canning, gardening, sewing, crotcheting, knitting and rugmaking. A special feature of the show will be a "Trash to treasure" craft demonstration.  It will be so popular that Oprah will  follow the trend as well.  

12. The "Supernanny" will train parents how to re-program their greedy, spoiled, brand conscious, materialistic brats out of cell phone, Ipod, and XBox addiction.  She will lead them out to the backyard and transform their monster swing set playgrounds into raised bed gardens.  "Seeds of Change" packets, miniature wheel barrows and shovels will channel  all of the pent up frustrations.   

13. The Big Island will escape the worst of the economic depression when ex-Californians start relocating here in ever increasing numbers, due to escalating civil unrest in the Golden State after Arnie declares the state bankrupt.  As of February 1st this is no longer speculation as California, already implementing Plan "D" will start issuing "IOU's" for welfare checks, tax refunds, student loans and vendors.

14. Board games, penny ante poker, neighborhood video showings and variety shows will begin to lift folks out of the fog of economic malaise.  A renaissance of "Personal Connections" will become the national pastime of GD 2.0.   Social networking sites such as MySpace and Facebook will continue to be very popular.

15. Pharmaceutical stocks will take a big hit as droves of people start ditching their antidepressants. Once the load of debts and the constant pressure to acquire BMW's, McMansions, and designer handbags eases, and once we start growing our own food, the mood of society will start to lighten up as everyone will begin to discover the light through all of this doom and gloom.

Hilo Living Blog

Readers-You must check out the "Hilo Living" Blog. It's one my favorite "Internet Addiction" places. This is such a fantastic blog, totally Hilo centric but in the context of the broader Global scenario. The bloggers are recent transplants from Silicon Valley but have a deep love for the aina and the culture. I have a feeling they are making lots of friends around here. I sure want to meet them. I expect I will, real soon.
Living so isolated from the rest of the planet, THE remotest archipelago on the planet, we Big Islanders can be somewhat untouched by geo-politcal events. This was certainly the case after the events of September 11, 2001. The overwhelming consensus among Big Islanders was that we were in the safest place we could possibly be. Everyone I met would talk about it, in absolute reverence and appreciation. We all felt so utterly graced to be able to live and prosper in this unique paradise. After that cataclysmic event, only a few were compelled to fly "Old Glory", unlike the enmasse flag flying that instantaneously appeared out of everyone's homes by September 12, 2001. Some may even recall that the State of Hawaii was sharply criticized for the tasteless lack of patriotism. There are many reasons Hawaiians lack the patriotic spirit, that is a subject for an entire blog all by itself, and I will not get into it now. If you are wondering why this place is not to smitten about the US Gov. then listen to the group,Sudden Rush, these Hilo based Hawaiian Rappers (often heard on the popular A&E series, "Dog the Bounty Hunter") says it best, in the song Ea "I ain't ever had an uncle named Sam!" Download that song and you will understand everything you need to know about why this place is not into flying the US flag.
So, the folks at "Hilo Living" posted a very insightful, sensitive, and spiritually based posting about the upside of the coming economic depression. One interesting fact about GD 1.0 is that Hawaii was untouched by that one. Back then, of course, Hawaii was still a territory, and the major economic engine was sugar cane.
I believe the east side of the Big Island will go through the GD 2.0, okay. After all, we had only about 2 years of a frenzied RE boom, and then one day around July 2006, poof, no more. Before that, it was already a severely depressed economy with the demise of the last of the sugar cane. Hilo has never recovered from that. We still have empty spaces in Hilo town, that have not been occupied for almost 20 years now. So for us in Hilo, it is just back to the way it was before 2005, unless you were one of those that took advantage of the equity bubble in your home. Ugh.
I think that the people of East Hawaii will find ways to take advantage of the rich aina and develop an even more diverse agriculture economy. We have so much untapped wealth around here with my biggest hope being that we will continue on a path towards food and energy sustainability. We have a lot to be hopeful for, and now more than ever is our chance to be a model society and show the rest of the world how to live well in a small, efficient "footprint".
So read this blog, "Hilo Living" and then read my response, below. A hui hou!

My hopes are exactly the same as yours but like "Anonymous" , we have a LOT of work to do when it comes to the images that constantly bombard us from MSM. Shows such as "The Hills" and "Real Housewives of OC" are huge impenetrable wall in front of our collective spirits. California is so in the forefront of everything that is wrong with our relationship with money. My biggest wish, much like yours, is that folks like ourselves, living within or below our means will be the new status symbols. Hardly a day goes by that I myself do not struggle with the state of my living conditions-small mortgage free house in dire need of a makeover. Why do I feel like such a loser when my true net worth may be vastly more than some of these "Posers" who have massive 6 figure revolving debts? My true wealth is my clear conscious, and highly functioning creativity, not to mention sound sleep every night. I guess, I was never one that could handle financial stress and have chosen a more humble, austere path in life.
The upside of an economic depression can be a huge windfall for folks who avoided the wealth effect. We will wait and see if Hilo prices will come down, so far not enough. (A Foreclosed McMansion in Sunrise Ridge going for nearly $800K is still out of reach and is likely to simmer for many years. What a shame. Boohoohoo.)
A new show "Momma's Boy's" (a new twist on the Bachelor) has this bimbo clown vying for one of the guys. She is 25 years old and has had numerous boob jobs and various plastic surgeries. She is $136K in cc debt. At least the show portrays her for what she is:massively stupid and phony! the intended guy's mom hates her enormously as she has raised her son to be averse to debt. At least its a beginning of a new positive status. We will get there, this is what the collective consciousness desperately wants, IMO.
Our spirits are starving from the debt load stress, the competition for image status, and this vacant toxic culture. The emotional devastation of Joblessness and poverty will cleanse our collective souls and transform this nation back to the qualities that once made us the envy of the world. Perhaps we will cleanse our spirits to a point where our imaginations and creativity can fluorish once again. How can anyone think with all facilities when bombarded by angry debt collector phone calls at all hours and piles of exponentially rising cc balances with 35% interest rates? It may take all year, just like it took for TPTB to call a recession, but by Dec. 2009 everyone will be facing the reality of "Yes, folks, we are in an Economic Depression and we have a long painful road to navigate". Obama maybe about "Change" but it may not look like the kind of change we were all thinking.

Yet Another DumbAss Law to Spark the Brewing Revolution

There’s a new law going into effect February 10^th that is one of the most stoooopid things I have ever heard. It makes you wonder what kind of dope these legislators are addicted to. If you are a frugal sort, which if you are reading this blog then you will be as outraged as I am. Check it out, if you do not believe it. I sure did not until I saw it here with my own eyes in the Los Angeles Times.

February 10^th it will be illegal to sell used children’s clothing that has not been tested for lead and phthalates (chemicals that make plastic more pliable). Some are complaining that this got passed through CON-gress too quickly. No shit Sherlock. Me thinks there is some big BIZ (most likely instigator that comes to my brain is the irrepressible multinational based in Bentonville, Arkansas with a dumb smiley face as its logo!) Funny, how this little Nanny state law got whizzed through right under our noses. How many Mother’s would have been screaming in the streets with their little ones packed in slings and tummy packs while toting angry placards. I know, I am uber frugalist, but isn’t there some kind of unwritten law that you hand over sacks of your cherished outgrown baby clothes to your new mom friends. I imagine the Gentlyworn Clothes Cops are already graduating their first new recruits as we speak.

The timing on this could not be more asinine as this GD 2.0 gets its walking legs. I know I will now be one of many law breaking citizens because this one is just begging for uncompliance. I can see the angry hordes storming Savers and Salvation Army demanding the return of the “all you can stuff in a bag for $5 specials “. Hopefully, the Gentlyworn Baby Clothes Police (GWBCP) will be fully armed and debriefed in crowd control by then.

I am very suspicious, that a certain Multinational retailer is behind all of this, too. This has Uncle Wally's signature and mega lobbying bucks all over its stinky self. What will the Pelosi Patrol think of next to keep us down in the perpetual poverty pit and debt slavery bondage?

My mind goes haywire thinking of the next tool for keeping society in its place. We have already been robbed in so many ways, from pathetic interest rates on savings, (Thank you Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson) devastation of equities, investments, 401K's, crash of yields in treasuries, and then of course, my favorite-increase in interest rates on credit cards with more and more creative fees (Usury-Guido style) from our dear friends, THE BANKS. What more do the Powers that BE (TPTB) want from us? I could list more and more robberies but, darn it…it’s the New Year and I want to keep focused on the light at the end of this tunnel.

My question is why pick on used childrens clothing? Why not make it illegal to put lead in all the new stuffs for kids from February 10th? And then what about the thousands of other chemicals and poisons that Big Agribiz puts in the food we eat. Or vaccinations that cause seizures and Autism? How about household chemicals and nasty ass oven cleaners? Or the crap they put in public drinking water? I could write millions of words about all this, but you all get the drift. I just do not understand why these legislators want to protect us from used baby clothes because one child died from swallowing a lead button. As tragic as that is, it was an accident and most likely an isolated incident. (The big culprit with that loose button was in fact the crappy manufacturing and lax sewing techniques more than the content of the thing). Now we are going to add more piles of stuff to our already overloaded landfills and let poor children run around in too small and more and more cheap Walmart crap. It is just too insane..

The real issue here, is that we are going to have to shove ourselves away from our cozy routines (American Idle viewing and microwave popcorning) and get angry enough to rile up the masses to revolt. Not only are the present generations headed for a long period of economic decline, but our babies grandkids and their babies grandkids will be chipping away at this $56 Trillion invoice for the next 4 centuries. What will it take for us to say “No More Dumbass Laws”?